Why are so many men not working? Are the official statistics just made up garbage?

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[i][b]Photo above[/b] - San Francisco has a successful program to match shelter dogs with homeless people (for real). It apparently does not have a successful program to combat substance abuse or homelessness. Dogs 1, humans 0?[/i]

A friend of mine, a perpetual optimist, is thumping his chest. [i]“We're at full employment. Have been for years. Wo-hoo!”[/i]

No we are not, I tell him. We're at 4% unemployment. [i]“Well, that's considered full employment, Miss Smarty pants.” [/i]The conversation goes downhill from there. But we aren't even actually at 4% unemployment. The link at bottom, from Business Insider, makes a compelling case why the official statistics appear to be complete garbage.

Basic math doesn't apply here. With 4% unemployment, you can't assume 96% of adults who want a job are actually working. The official labor participation rate is . . . 62%. And it's been dropping for years. Took a big plunge when Covid 19 shutdowns were having their 15 minutes of fame. But the number of adults in the US workforce (on a percentage basis) was dropping steadily long before that. Depending on which TV station you watch, the unemployment number just keep getting better and better under the current administration. Well, it IS an election year, and nobody wants to run on BAD statistics. Like the one showing that another 1 million working age men dropped out of the labor force last year alone. The official government stats claim unemployment is plummeting, even as “not in the the labor force” numbers are skyrocketing. The share of working age men with a job has dropped from 96% to 86% over several decades. Ay caramba – that looks like 10% MORE unemployment, doesn't it?

It's worse some place than others. 40% of working age men in San Francisco cited disability or mental illness (2022 census data) as the reason they weren't working. 40% !!! You'd have to be crazy to work if you could get government certification for disability benefits, welfare, or basic minimum income. Nobody actually WANTS to be a Doordash driver or a burger flipper, you know. Another case of one government agency contradicting another's statistics. It's not known how many homeless people were included in San Francisco's data. Tent and bridge occupants are notoriously UNDER counted, due to their lack of official USPS addresses to receive Census forms. And they are notorious for being mentally ill, or substance abusers. The real number of unemployed in San Francisco could be higher than 40%.

The Business Insider article is depressing to read. It says that once a man STARTS collecting disability or welfare, it becomes progressively (pun alert) more difficult for him to return to the labor force, no matter how mild or transitory his situation had been. The reasons given would make anyone's list of the usual suspects. “Opioid addiction”. “Women in the workforce”. Divorce/breakup. Automation. Low wage migrants competing for entry level jobs. Outsourcing whatever jobs are left to 3rd world countries.

In California, the salary for professional burger flippers was just boosted to $20 an hour. I don't expect this windfall to actually make a dent in the 40% "not working" stats in San Francisco. And there are already a bunch of fast food and casual dining places shutting their doors. Others are installing phalanxes of robots. If you google “Restaurant sticker shock in California”, you can find a dozen stories about greedy customers who don't want to pay $18 for their burger, fries, and small drink.

In the corporate world, a conflux of negative statistics like this would be called a death spiral. Company shareholders would - at least - demand a change in management. Or possibly a buyout by a competitor. There are no competitors on the horizon who want to buy the US government out. Apparently our only hope is to demand a change in management.

I'm just sayin' . . .

[b][u]Why Men in the US Are Working Less Than They Used to (businessinsider.com)

Civilian labor force participation rate (bls.gov)

Table A-1. Employment status of the civilian population by sex and age - 2024 Q01 Results (bls.gov)[/u][/b]